Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 21.101778 25.354322 30.028576 35.519467 41.763814 48.614975 56.670253
2025-08-31 14.120383 19.472766 25.971209 34.318329 44.623946 56.796898 72.118253
2025-09-07 10.906746 16.775840 24.468841 35.021510 48.827970 65.974862 88.545696
2025-09-14 8.309245 14.160251 22.387057 34.345988 50.787078 72.074866 101.133834
2025-09-21 6.864355 12.798744 21.660387 35.177860 54.520532 80.402794 116.742231
2025-09-28 5.171630 10.666846 19.432858 33.507709 54.501845 83.548813 125.495068
2025-10-05 4.462687 9.981210 19.252803 34.733337 58.550722 92.320804 142.088163
2025-10-12 3.817059 9.259840 18.882539 35.564257 61.989711 100.318950 157.867168
2025-10-19 3.257554 8.571928 18.449557 36.200847 65.103668 107.919936 173.313871
2025-10-26 2.831000 8.051747 18.221310 37.110689 68.637952 116.227566 190.016196
2025-11-02 2.312871 7.207346 17.270057 36.668231 69.944163 121.214514 202.017604
2025-11-09 1.949719 6.621485 16.715861 36.836742 72.199945 127.672491 216.342355
2025-11-16 1.582875 5.956658 15.970738 36.705963 74.151988 134.068417 231.335694
2025-11-23 1.199040 5.116015 14.723558 35.512883 74.232096 137.577278 242.190790
2025-11-30 1.013168 4.773162 14.495626 36.237792 77.658798 146.524512 261.666203
2025-12-07 0.783434 4.193497 13.613561 35.544185 78.476466 151.233679 274.661753
2025-12-14 0.667862 3.952994 13.498342 36.398563 82.134791 160.730029 295.466922
2025-12-21 0.475190 3.313629 12.244615 34.683131 80.871859 161.911126 303.011231
2025-12-28 0.416613 3.197628 12.351009 35.942036 85.307299 172.893244 326.660968
2026-01-04 0.354448 3.030482 12.283718 36.795368 88.991146 182.698204 348.650107
2026-01-11 0.296779 2.848908 12.139139 37.449050 92.304829 191.959353 369.982093
2026-01-18 0.253651 2.716887 12.117062 38.383204 96.215482 202.383730 393.498008
2026-01-25 0.193267 2.428863 11.546550 37.928940 97.277122 207.780999 408.752845